According to Israel’s Channel 2 TV news, this is the breakdown of the next Knesset:
Likud Beiteinu: 31 (-11)
Yesh Atid: 19 (+11)
Labor: 17 (+9)
The Jewish Home: 12 (+7)
Shas: 12 (+2)
HaTnua: 7 (+7)
Meretz: 7 (+4)
United Torah Judaism: 6 (+1)
Ra’am-Ta’al: 3 (-1)
Balad: 2 (-1)
The right-wing stands at 61 seats, the left at 59 (previously 55:65). Gone are Kadima (-21), Independence (-5), Strong Israel (-2) and Am Shalem (-1). The right:
Likud Beiteinu : 31
The Jewish Home: 12
United Torah Judaism: 6
The “center” and left-wing:
Yesh Atid: 19
Arab parties (Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al, Balad): 9
That means Binyamin Netanyahu will likely get to make the coalition as everyone expected in the lead up. Here are the questions that commentators are now asking:
With such a narrow lead — one seat — which center party will Netanyahu include to lend greater stability?
Since Yesh Atid is the likeliest contender with a sizable 19 seats, does that mean Netanyahu will leave out one of the more right-wing parties?
Would Netanyahu leave out one of the ultra-orthodox parties Shas or UTJ? That might be necessary since Yesh Atid campaigned centrally on putting the yeshivabuchers to work.
Is it really all but certain that Netanyahu will forgo including more centrist parties like Tzipi Livni’s HaTnua or even Labor?
Despite the fact that Netanyahu will be given the keys to the car again and there will be no (or precious few) progressives in Israel’s government this time either, there are a few silver linings. Larry Derfner at 972 Mag says no matter how you slice it, Netanyahu has lost control of a now more extreme right-wing. His days are numbered, but those coming to take his place are even worse. Brent Sasley at Open Zion is more optimistic that a centrist coalition is indeed possible, citing leadership differences between Netanyahu and head of the Jewish Home, Naftali Bennett.
And in the most interesting analysis of the results, Assaf Oron points out at The Only Democracy that in the last elections there were three Likud parties — Likud itself, Kadima as centrist-Likud, and Yisrael Beiteinu as Russian-Likud — with a total of 70 seats between them, while also taking a few seats from the left. Now, Likud-Beiteinu is down to 31 total. “The Right has passed its undeserved zenith,” he writes. Meanwhile, the lefties elected are actually progressives, including a strengthened Meretz and Labor.
Want $5,000 towards studying and volunteering in Israel? Apply to the Abe and Gert Nutkis Scholarship by March 15!
American Jews are organizing in Los Angeles to support African refugees tortured in Sinai and seeking refuge in Israel: Jan 27 with documentary film “Exile No More” and Feb 10 featuring FDR’s grandson Ford Roosevelt.
Join Encounter’s life-changing dialogue tour to Bethlehem on Feb 21-22.
Have you entered Jewschool and Mah Rabu’s elections predictions pool? Monday, January 21st at midnight EST is your last chance to enter!
I’m finding two big differences between American and Israeli electoral advertisements. First, ads here in Israel are more entertaining, mostly because they’re way more offensive. It’s even worse than the coded racism of past years’ Republican commercials — there seems no need for anything covert here. This month, the Sephardi ultra-orthodox party called Russians goyyim while an extreme right party charged Palestinian citizens with disloyalty, just to mention a couple that raised eyebrows.
The second big difference is the blessedly short campaign period here, no more than 101 days and only during the final weeks of which TV ads may run. The short campaign season is thanks to strict Israeli elections regulations: The maximum campaign gift is $480 per household annually (believe it!); only parties can receive donations for the general election; individuals may only raise money for their primary campaigns. (And only a handful of parties even conduct primaries. Avigdor Lieberman, for example, picks Yisrael Beiteinu’s entire slate.) Most notably to me, advertisements on radio, TV and print are paid for publicly based on a party’s existing seats in Knesset. Yes, that means that Kadima, sitting at nearly a quarter of the outgoing Knesset, received the most advertising airtime even though it will barely win one seat.
This is not to say that Israeli elections are free from undue influence. Kibbutzim and the largest union, the Histadrut, are exempted from some restrictions on financing elections. (Guess who they usually support.) Meanwhile, institutions like the state-run religious military academies illegally mobilize for religious parties. And the right-wing parties’ primaries awash with many times the amount of American Jewish money than the left. Worse, Yisrael Hayom is owned by American casino magnate Sheldon Adelson and is Netanyahu’s personal trumpeter. The latter is apparently perfectly legal.
Minus the state-run yeshivas, America stands to benefit by adopting the same restrictions on campaign funding, campaign length, and public financing. Below you’ll find TV spots from most of the major parties this election, even the ones which put American race-baiting in Little League. (Thanks to my fellow Dorot Fellow Daniel Haboucha for allowing me to share the links he collected.) More »
From the Presidents Conference in Jerusalem in June 2012, Jewish leaders were asked a single question: “Since 1948, how many non-Jewish people has the State of Israel accepted as refugees?” Due notice that all the Israelis are way closer to the truth than the rosy-eyed Americans.
How many refugees do you think Israel should accept as part of its obligation under the UN refugee covenant — of which Israel was on the steering committee for the drafting of it and 5 of 26 contributing NGOs were Jewish ones? Hmmmm?
Kim Kardashian apologized after violating the Israel-Diaspora relationship by criticizing the duly-elected and sovereign governments of Israel and the Hamas-held Gaza Strip by wishing peace upon the region.
Yesterday, I sat surrounded by tutu-sporting 8-year-olds in the basement bomb shelter of a Tel Aviv community center. There is nothing more tragic to watch than wet-eyed and fearful miniature ballerinas. The twenty minutes I spent there summoned with clarity many of the reasons that brought me to Israel eight years ago in the first place.
When we heard the siren, it was unmistakable. If you’ve heard the Shabbos horn in Crown Heights, Brooklyn, it’s the same sound. And I see the same behaviors here in Israel as when my family heard our first tornado alert in rural Colorado: we looked out our front window to see our elderly neighbor sitting drinking a beer in a lawn chair in his driveway casually watching the sky. The atmosphere here is likewise the same practiced routine with one eye always on the news. If anything, people seem to believe they’ve seen this TV episode before and know how it ends: the Hebrew press is now reporting that Israel authorized 75,000 reserve soldiers be called up and asked Homeland Security to prepare for 7 weeks of fighting.
When talk does turn to the escalation, I hear a similar escalation in internal-Israeli debating. After noting to a Tel Avivi friend that 1991 was the last time the alarm was heard here, he tersely replied, “Yes, we’re more used to suicide bombers in nightclubs and cafes.” Later that day, someone from the north commented that it was about time Tel Avivis felt something personal at stake. And as of earlier today, rockets have fallen near Jerusalem too.
And meanwhile, the civilian residents of Gaza — impoverished and deprived of myriad simple freedoms — huddle in their homes while leaflets and text messages from the IDF warn them to leave combat zones. But to where, it’s not apparent. Unlike the alarm and shelters that I have access to all over Tel Aviv, there is no warning for incoming IDF airstrikes on the missiles hidden beneath the house next door, nor are there fortified bomb shelters to retreat into. Certainly their ruling, blood-thirsty, religious fundamentalist junta will take seriously their demands for ceasefire…
All of this was yet to cross my mind as I sat in the shelter with ballerinas full of confusion. There’s little to do in there except pondering a little of your own mortality. Those minutes — let us hope they will not add up to hours this month — make you reflect briefly about what you value and hope for most for the world, and wonder whether you are working hard enough for it to come to be. An end to wars is definitely on my list and ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict I am now even more dedicated to.
Officially, Netanyahu said in a short statement that he will “continue working with President Obama in order to safeguard the interests crucial for the security of Israel’s citizens.” Netanyahu stepped boldly into American electoral politics by appearing with Romney and participating in Republican ads in Florida. More »
Tellingly, the head of the Conservative movement’s Rabbinical Assembly, Rabbi Garry Skolnick, gave hint to this counter-current in an email blast: “When Protestant groups are pushing for a total reconsideration of all American foreign aid to Israel and Iran is working hard to develop the capacity to go nuclear, we must be thoughtful as to how, and in what forums, we choose to address the very real issues that are of burning concern to us.” He continued, “Yes, Israel must change. But those of us who love her must help her change, not hurt her through our good intentions.”
As one (female) Jewschool contributor quipped, “No one’s got the tits at all in this movement.” But it’s not just “wussing out” on women’s rights as another contributor said, it’s the obvious selective outcry of institutions joining this particular outcry. They’ve been silent on recent offenses equally important — and in a few cases, even more dire. More »
Morris compiles a capable summary of the evolution of competing one-state, bi-national, and two-state visions within the Zionist movement from the turn of the century through today. But his attempt to do so for the Palestinians is short, shallow and ultimately unpersuasive.
The detail that Benny Morris describes in early Zionist deliberations over ethnic cleansing and bi-national alternatives is missing from his treatment of Arab/Palestinian nationalism. On the Zionist side, he cites declassified meetings of the Jewish Agency and the World Zionist Congress alongside diaries of David Ben Gurion, Judah Magnes and others. On one hand, he cites, founding Zionist leaders desired a Jewish state encompassing nearly all of Israel’s present neighbors, beyond even Transjordan. On the other hand, these founders were ever-conscious of the democratic limitations of this vision. Between the Holocaust and Arab rejection, the Zionist establishment took what it could get, far short of Transjordan. First the Peel Commission, then the UN Partition Plan, then returning the Sinai, and finally the two-state consensus today. Again and again, Morris says, the Jews exhibited pragmatic compromise. More »
In an email sent this morning to friends and campaign supporters, Stav Shaffir, one of the two highest profile young leaders of Israel’s social protests last summer, entered politics.
This is my first letter to you since embarking on a new path – as a candidate for the Labour Party’s list for the Knesset. This was not an easy decision to make. More than a year has passed since the social protest began, I continue to believe in our civic power, in our ability to affect the system through public pressure, education, and media. Today, everyone knows that we have already conquered the streets. But the most important decisions are made in the very place that my generation has deserted. I will not accept this fact any longer. The responsibility we took upon ourselves last summer must grow beyond the streets.
I am entering politics. I carry with me on this new path the stories, hopes and wishes of countless people I have met during this past year. My mission is to be a voice for those stories in the halls of the Knesset. This coming election is critical, It will determine where our country is headed – whether to the same policy that does not protect the public’s interests – or to politics that put the citizens’ social welfare and economic dignity as its top priority. More »
Eli Yishai, Israel’s Interior Minister, said about the 60,000 Africans seeking asylum in Israel that ”Until I have the option of expelling them, I will imprison them and make their lives miserable.”
Expulsion isn’t a viable option for the international condemnation that would erupt if Israel sent thousands of people back to war-torn regions. Instead and to appease racist incitement, Netanyahu’s government passed a law that allows for illegal entrants into the country to be jailed for three years without a trial. And on October 15, MK Yishai intends to start first with 15,000 asylum seekers from Sudan.
Please join our October 15th campaign by making a call, sending an email, or sending a fax to the following departments of the Israeli government every day until October 15th. The Interior Minister, Eli Yishai, plans on rounding up and detaining 15,000 Sudanese asylum seekers in Israel if they do not “voluntarily” leave by then. More »
Israel deported 18 of 21 African asylum seekers at its border with Egypt. According to activists reported later in the media, they were denied food and water and prohibited from entering. When a pregnant woman miscarried, international outcry prompted Israel to allow her and two others into the country.
Today, the Israeli Foreign Ministry launched a social media campaign “I am a Refugee” to deflect criticism from Israel’sappallingtreatment of African asylum seekers. In the 1948 founding of the State of Israel, while Jewish extremists were shooing Palestinians from their villages, many Arab countries ejected their Jewish populations and seized their properties. Conveniently this is two-for-one issue for the nationalist camp, shifting blame over the lack of Israeli-Palestinian peace progress back on Arab countries.
I would think that Jews of Arab origin would be outraged that their dispossession is again raised only as a talking point against Palestinian refugees. As a decidedly secondary and repressed narrative in Israeli society, the true-to-life injustice suffered by Jews from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Iran and other places is shunted aside because of the uncomfortable consequences such an equivalence would have on the Palestinian refugee issue. Meaning, if Mizrachim are granted repatriation or compensation back in the Arab world, then such would grant Palestinians the same in Israel.
So by raising this issue in such a way, Danny Ayalon and the Israeli government seem to implicitly say that invoking justice for Mizrachim is just a political game. There won’t be any justice — but they’re happy to abuse that memory for political gain. More cynical injustice to heap upon an already unfair situation. I can only hope that Danny Ayalon cooked this up himself without involving the helpless foreign service professionals who painfully chafe at this government’s incessant foreign affairs stupidity.