(Crossposted to Mah Rabu.)

Well, NCAA March Madness may be proceeding this year without fans in the stands, but Knesset March Madness 2020 is still proceeding normally!

The election results are now official.  Tzomet dropped out before the election, but here are the results for the other 29 parties:

  1. Likud 36
  2. Blue and White 33
  3. Joint List 15
  4. Shas 9
  5. United Torah Judaism 7
  6. Labor-Gesher-Meretz 7
  7. Yisrael Beiteinu 7
  8. Yaminah 6
  9. Otzmah Yehudit
  10. Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit
  11. Kol HaNashim
  12. Pirates
  13. Mishpat Tzedek
  14. Yisraelist – Zechuyoteinu B’Koleinu
  15. Ani V’Atah
  16. (tie) HaBerit HaMeshutefet
  17. (tie) Seder Hadash
  18. Koach Lehashpia
  19. Mitkademet
  20. Da’am Green Economy One State
  21. HaLev HaYehudi
  22. Shema
  23. Bible Bloc Party
  24. KaMaH
  25. Adom Lavan
  26. HaHazon
  27. Manhigut Hevratit
  28. Kevod HaAdam
  29. Peulah L’Yisrael

As we keep repeating essentially the same election over and over, the top scores in the prediction contests keep getting higher and higher, as the results become more and more predictable.  But there were still no perfect scores this time – there were still some changes from last time that participants had to predict (e.g. the gains for Likud and the Joint List, and the losses for Labor-Gesher-Meretz).

But before we get there, let’s talk about the tiebreaker questions.  Once again, the first question (“Of the parties that do NOT win seats in the Knesset, which will come closest?”) was very straightforward.  Otzmah Yehudit wasn’t close in either direction: it came in far below the threshold to get into the Knesset, but far above any of the other unsuccessful parties.  Most of our entrants got this one right (though some predicted that Otzmah Yehudit would make it into the Knesset).  The second question (“Which party will get the FEWEST votes?”) was harder.  No one predicted the “winner”, Peulah L’Yisrael (which didn’t run in the previous election), or the “runner-up”, Kevod HaAdam.  So honorable mention goes to DMH in DC, and Eliana Fishman in Washington DC, who both picked perennial last-place finisher Manhigut Hevratit, which got the fewest votes of any party that anyone picked for this question.

Now to the overall Knesset prediction results!  We had a tie for second place: Eliana Fishman in Washington DC and Samantha Brody in Teveria, Israel, both scored an astonishing 116 out of 120.  So we go to the tiebreaker questions.  Eliana Fishman picked Otzmah Liberalit-Kalkalit (which came in second among the parties that didn’t make it into the Knesset), and Samantha Brody correctly picked Otzmah Yehudit, so Samantha Brody is our runner-up!  Congratulations!

And in first place, Isaac Brooks Fishman in Washington, Douglass Commonwealth, correctly predicted 117 out of 120 Knesset seats, the highest score in the history of these prediction contests!!!  Congratulations!!!!

We asked our champion for a statement, and he writes:

There is no god but God, and Yeshayahu Leibowitz is the Messenger of God. Now for my next prediction: The winner of the 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary will be Eric Swalwell.

Thanks to everyone for playing!  If the newly elected 23rd Knesset somehow forms a stable government that manages to last its entire term, then we’ll see you again on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 (yes, that’s the same day as the US elections).  Otherwise, we might do this all over again in a few months!