99% reporting: split decision
The results so far:
- Kadima 28
- Likud 27
- Yisrael Beytenu 14
- Labor 13
- Shas 11
- United Torah Judaism 5
- United Arab List 5
- Hadash 4
- National Union 4
- The Jewish Home 3
- Meretz 3
- Balad 3
On the one hand, this looks at first glance like an upset victory for Kadima, who appear to have defied all the polls and achieved a plurality. On the other hand, it’s hard to see how Kadima will get to 61 seats, while the Likud has a clear path to a right-wing coalition. Both Livni (Kadima) and Netanyahu (Likud) have declared victory, and we’re likely to see more drama over the next few weeks as this gets straightened out. Once again, all eyes may be on Shas. These results are not final, and some seats could still shift here and there.
It’s looking like we’re going to have all the same parties that were in the previous Knesset, with the exception of Gil, who is out. No new parties made it in. It looks like smaller parties on the left lost support in the final days as the anti-Netanyahu vote broke towards Kadima. Meretz is having its worst showing in years. It also looks like an Arab Israeli boycott didn’t materialize, and Arab voters may instead have been particularly energized — 5 seats (United Arab List) is the most I can recall seeing for an Arab party since I’ve been paying attention.
At one point, the opinion polling was indicating that Kadima could stay in power if it took the bold step of including Hadash in its coalition.
In this situation, there’s only two options for Kadima. They can either form a government with Lieberman or with Bibi. The former is more likely to happen. But (unfortunately) far more likely Bibi will form a government with Lieberman.
Kadima + Labor + Shas + UTJ + Hadash = 61. Not so likely, but mathematically possible.
too soon to play with the numbers – rember that only in a few hours will you get the final esults including whats known as “kolot hachayalim” which actually include 7% of the total votes (sldiers+cripples+students+diplomants+prisoners etc.)
if you look at the numbers and at the way these groups voted in the past, it is prettyy clear that in the least likud will get mandate 28, and habayit-hayehudi will get their 4th, with the probable loosers being balad/labor/shas who all barely have a hold on their last mandate and traditionaly get far less votes from that group.