Politics

Obama: Projected Democratic Party Nomination Winner?

First, we had January 4th, which saw Jonathan Chait from the New Republic saying “It’s over”:

And now, it seems that more than a few bloggers are beginning to predict the previously thought improbable (if not impossible) — Obama defeating Clinton in the primaries, and winning the Democratic Party’s nomination for the election.
Cogitamus, source of the above video, does a little math:

Even if Clinton manages a narrow loss, tie, or narrow win in Virginia, Barack Obama should win Maryland and DC handily. Combined with a likely big win in one of his home states (Hawaii), he’ll have roughly a 100 delegate lead going into the Wisconsin primary. Let’s be pessimistic and assume Obama loses by 15%. With 75 pledged delegates, that means his lead will drop to the high 80s.
We’re now all the way to the Ohio and Texas primaries, with a total of 334 pledged delegates at stake. To claw back to a draw, Hillary Clinton will have to win a whopping 61% of them. There’s no way that can happen…

The Cuban-American blog Babalú also projects an Obama win, citing problems with the Clinton camp:

What I thought was inevitable, the nomination of Hillary Clinton by Democrats, now seems unlikely. Obama wins several contests tonight and will probably sweep Tuesday’s “Potomac Primaries”. Clinton’s campaign is in financial trouble and those high-value politicians that endorsed her haven’t delivered the number of states and delegates necessary to win.

Babalú also notes — even Intrade.com is putting the likelihood of an Obama nomination at around 65%. (This is up from being at between 60-62 percent on Friday.) Even the conservative RedState.com said flatly, “Hillary Clinton will not win the Democratic Presidential nomination” on the first try.
While I don’t want to jump the gun, I can’t ignore that even the New York Post is saying that Obama could “yet pull off” the nomination. (Some people were saying this way back in the day as well.)
If this momentum keeps up, perhaps Obama will be to voters this fall the “real choice” he alluded to on Super Tuesday after all.

7 thoughts on “Obama: Projected Democratic Party Nomination Winner?

  1. I predict that Obama won’t win Maryland. People are just too politically sophisticated and want someone with knowledge and experience … Obama just isn’t there yet. Although I admit that perhaps I’m thinking of the inside the beltway MD, in which the whole “change” rhetoric just doesn’t cut it since it’s us who are the ones who actually are the career civil servants and political sophisticates (and, of course, have jobs that ‘change’ could get us out of). OK, not me anymore, but my community.

  2. You totally are thinking of “inside the beltway” MD (what I would refer to as “the other Maryland” being from Baltimore), I can see Obama taking literally the entire rest of the state — save those two counties, which, vis-a-vis the rest of the state, are an anomaly IMO.

  3. You are probably right that I am thinking of “inside the Beltway” but to me, that is MD (Well, Montgomery County is outside the Beltway). Baltimer and the rest of the county is not the political sophisticate that the beltway is.

  4. Wow! A “political sophisticate” who can’t spell Baltimore. Well, Mr. “political sophisticate” you better tell all your keystone cop buddies in D.C. to start beefing up their resumes because “we the people” will not stop until every one of them is thrown out of their jobs! I’m sure a lot of French noblemen who lost their heads on the chopping block also thought of themselves as “political sophisticates” but that didn’t help them in the end. Today, you are not dealing with an election. This is a movement to wipe out all the corruption in D.C. and we will not be stopped!
    Yes. We. Can.

  5. Diane, I know how to spell Baltimore. Baltimer is an accent, it was a joke!
    You people think DC is so corrupt and don’t understand politics. I can understand wanting policy differences than the current administration (trust me) but “Change” is an empty mantra and Obama lacks experience and needs to denounce Farrakhan and find a new church unless his pastor will. More importantly, he needs to not rely on Carter’s foreign policy advisers.

  6. Diane,
    From this Obama voter and federal employee, please desist. You’re not convincing anybody. In fact, your rhetoric sounds like nothing I’ve heard from any Obama supporters here in the DC region.
    Amechad,
    I believe “Bawlmer” is the technically-proper Baltimorese. 🙂

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