We're On The Road To Nowhere
- An IAF officer alleged that IDF chief of staff Dan Halutz ordered bombers to destroy 10 buildings for every rocket that lands on Israel.
- Israel hit two Red Cross ambulances in an air strike Sunday and on Tuesday killed four UN observers in a subsequent strike, after being repeatedly warned they were shelling too close to the UN station in southern Lebanon. Kofi Annan has proclaimed the act an “apparently deliberate targeting.” Israel denied the allegation and PM Ehud Olmert expressed his “deep regret” for the incident.
- Indymedia Beirut alleges that Israel is using chemical weapons against Lebanese civilians.
- Meretz party chairman Yossi Beilin has petitioned Israel’s high court over PM Olmert’s failure to officially declare war in Lebanon.
- Arutz Sheva reports that a BBC correspondent admitted that many of the supposed civilians killed in Israel’s airstrikes were actually Hizbullah operatives, and that he himself witnessed Hizbullah using civilian cover to launch attacks against Israel.
- Kiryat Shemona intends to evacuate all of its citizens.
- Hizbollah says it plans to hit Netanya next. That’s twice the distance their rockets currently reach.
- Israel is planning to establish a mile-deep buffer zone along the Israel-Lebanon border, not unlike the buffer zone it established along the Gaza-Egypt border.
- Italy’s premier has offered to commit troops to a peace keeping force in Lebanon.
As the second week of fighting nears its closing, I have become personally unable to find any substantial justification for the scale of Israel’s response (in northern Lebanon, at least), as it has done nothing at all to bring the rocket barrages to a halt (another 100 rockets landed on northern Israel yesterday, over 1,500 so far). Rather, it has only resulted in the collective punishment of Lebanese civilians who, ultimately, have suffered more than they could conceivably deserve for giving Hizbullah free reign in the south.
As events continue to unfold in Lebanon, I am compelled to agree with a recent visitor to Orthodox Anarchist, dendroc, who wrote:
I cannot help but see this go very badly for all sides involved, with the exception of Hezbollah.
Lebanon had been making tremendous progress in rebuilding and in creating the sort of free and open society that is so sorely needed in the Middle East. The attacks against it throw all that in jeopardy. Already, some are taking them as an object lesson that democratization is a pointless exercise (the Lebanese tried it and the world abandoned them) and what are needed is more militance and fundamentalism.
The attacks are going to create an economic depression in Lebanon, starving the heavily-indebted government of tax revenues and at the same time creating a huge increase in demand for social services. Hezbollah or other extremist groups, as in the past, are likely to step in to meet this void.
There’s a gross asymmetry — to Hezbollah’s favor — in what constitutes a “victory” for each side. Israel has to destroy Hezbollah. Hezbollah simply has to survive to fight another day. Given the failure of past Israeli military actions to accomplish the former, the latter would appear to be the most likely outcome.
It would not surprise me to see a new militant group, dedicated to the destruction of Israel, come out of this. After all, Hezbollah came out of an earlier Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
I fear the man is correct. Strategically, this is already a botched operation. What good is killing off Hizbullah if you’re inspiring a new generation to take its place?
Is this leftist defeatism? Hardly. The Libertarian Conservative CATO Institute said it prior to and all throughout the war in Iraq:
Another war in Iraq may serve bin Laden’s objective of unifying radical Muslims around the world in a jihad against the United States, increasing the number of anti-U.S. terrorists. In contrast, the Sept. 11 attacks and the successful prosecution of the war in Afghanistan have divided the Muslim political elite.
Even worse, the continued U.S. military presence (currently 140,000 troops) does more to create anti-American sentiment in Iraq, which breeds hatred, which becomes a steppingstone to violence, including terrorism – rather than quelling a growing insurgency. Consider that in September 2003, less than 20 percent of those Iraqis polled believed attacks against U.S. troops were justified. In April 2004, that number skyrocketed to over 60 percent–in Baghdad alone that translates to an increase from 440,000 adults 18 or older to over 1.3 million (out of an adult population of 2.3 million).
Applied to Israel — I’ll repeat Michael Oren‘s quote which was the very first item I blogged in response to Israel’s invasion of Lebanon:
Punishing the Palestinian and Lebanese peoples collectively, as Israel has been doing, only strengthens their support for terror while creating painful ethical problems for Israelis.
At the end of the day, Israel may win the immediate battle against Hizbullah. But it’s going to lose itself the war against Islamic extremism, by turning ordinary civilians into hardline extremists. From this route it is already too late to recover.
So uh, where do we go from here? Back to where we started.
Yesterday Iran and Syria both called for a cease fire. With Hizbullah clearly suffering, this may be evidence of the alleged “escape hatch” they’re looking for that enables them to “live to fight another day.”
Mideast observers say Hezbollah only has to remain standing — not beat Israel — to emerge victorious in Arab eyes.
[…] If Hezbollah emerges from the fighting with its “military arm more or less intact … my God they’re going to use it as a victory,” Goksel said.
“As long as they don’t lose, they don’t have to win … because they’ll be standing up to the Israelis and in this part of the world that is a victory.”
I reposted an analysis from Stratfor, and in that post there’s a link to another tactical analysis.
interesting analysis but completely fails to address the strategic significance of destroying civilian areas/infrastructure and alienating friendly lebanese.
if anything, israel should have carpetbombed southern lebanon and dropped ground forces in beirut. instead, they did the opposite.
When I’m looking for military answers to conflicts, I go to militaryphotos.net and read the comments of ex-military folk discuss strategy, etc. Hope you don’t take too much offence if newspaper editorials and bloggers don’t mean dick when it comes to why or why not the IDF bombed Northern Lebanon.
gee — sounds a lot like Palestine:
http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/story?id=2235354&CMP=OTC-RSSFeeds0312
“Over here, everybody is the army,” one soldier said. “Everybody is Hezbollah. There’s no kids, women, nothing.”
Another soldier put it plainly: “We’re going to shoot anything we see.”
“if anything, israel should have carpetbombed southern lebanon ”
are you for or against collective punishment, Mobius? carpet bombings sounds kind of collective. would you write, “Israel should have carpetbombed Gaza?” Nablus, maybe?
I am all for carpetbombing all of Lebanon. Lebanon has already become a de facto islamic state since the christians have become a minority. Any country with an islamic population percentage over 50% is lost to the civilized world. Let the christians migrate to America and screw Lebanon. It’s nice the christians held out so long in that part of the world for so long but it’s over.
As for Hizbullah becoming victorious after all this, just remember that 58 years they were going to push you all into the sea. Now they call it a victory just to survive and fight another day. No my friends, they are losing and they can’t even see it.
xisnotx — that wasn’t an adovacy for anything, as so much as a questioning of the strategic approach israel’s undertaken. that said, all bombing operations conducted by israel are proceeded by the dropping of leaflets giving ample time for civilians to evacuate. and because of the sparse population of southern lebanon, compared to the dense population of beirut, better the destroy a few hundred houses than thousands of apartments.
of course, better nothing get destroyed at all, but how do you think israel should respond when faced with 12,000 rockets and an army of jihadis? pack up and move to europe?
Arutz Sheva, now there’s a reliable source. “It is difficult to quantify who is a terrorist and who is a civilian.” I just googled that quote. It appears nowhere besides Arutz Sheva, LGF and its ilk. Not on the Beeb, as far as i can tell…
of course, it is grossly unfair of the Lebanese to fight an invading army from their own homes. They should find a nice open field somewhere and expose themselves to Apaches and follow the marquess of queensbury rules.
The confusion of this post (more bombing, less bombing) and the confusion of the comments has the same cause: we are losing. It is clear that Israel doesn’t know how to respond effectively – she is use to dealing with governments, who she knows how to defeat in conventional wars, or the palestinians, terrorists but not sophisticated well equiped opponents. Hez is a modern, well trained force using guerilla tactics- and Israel hasn’t figured out how to stop them. She is unwilling to use overwhelming force (the cnventional remedy) but to sue for peace will send the disastrous message that Hez has faught Israel to a standoff. Unless Israel changes directions and ratches up the offense (and I don’t care at what cost to the Lebanese) this mini war will be the prelude to a whole pyschological change in the Arab world who will now consider Israel defeatable (and so will the US and the rest of the world) – this will culminate in either a major war with the Arab states or a steadily increased was of attrition, the Lebanon situation of the 80’s but now occuring in Israel proper. We are looking at bad times.
“but how do you think israel should respond when faced with 12,000 rockets and an army of jihadis?
let’s look at what Israeli human rights lawyer Michael Sfard says:http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/741112.html
” In this case, there has been a crude violation of all the rules of war by the Hezbollah, and Israel has the moral and legal right to respond – I just don’t know what kind of warfare is being waged there. After all, the chief of staff, as the commander of the air force, told me explicitly what he thinks about killing civilians: He just feels a slight tremor on the wing.”
“pack up and move to europe?”
No.
Let’s remember this army of Jihadis with their 12,000 rockets has been facing Israel for six years without a hot war erupting. Let’s also remember the conditions under which this army of Jihadis rose in the first place. Note as well most of the rockets started falling after Israel’s strikes on Lebanese civilian infrastructure, thus Israel’s response prompted the firing of the missiles it feared could be fired at it. One can argue, better to get rid of those missile now than later, but note the government seems to have curtailed talking about defanging Hezbollah completely, and now speaks mostly of curtailing it. Ironically, Nasrallah was under growing domestic pressure to disarm; now 70% of lebanese, including 55% of the xtians, say don’t give the Israeli prisoners back.
Note that Nasrallah has fingered Netanya for strikes. How is this different from dropping leaflets on Lebanon? Will the warning obviate in any way Hezbollah’s responsibility for injuries it causes in Netanya? why should Netanya’s residents be obligated to leave; is it not a double standard to expect Tyre’s to leave?
No question Hezbollah violated international law. but what about Israel kidnapping Mustafa Dirani and Sheik Obeid — did Hezbollah respond by massive bombing of Israel? what kind of a response would have been justified? How many Lebanese shepherds have been shot over the blue line by the IDF in the last six years? how many Lebanese have been maimed or killed by land mines left by Israel, which the UN says the Israelis have failed to provide adequate maps for? do these things constitute a casus belli?
Gideon Levy pointed out that whether it is the excuse or the motivation, Jihadis use the occupation to justify attacks. Hezbollah did that in this case as well.
check out this chris hedges piece, at least the intro: http://www.truthdig.com/dig/item/20060725_israels_wall/
My gut tells me only Nasrallah is likely to come out ahead in all of this.
Mobius — my previous answer seems to stuck in the queue?
“that said, all bombing operations conducted by israel are proceeded by the dropping of leaflets giving ample time for civilians to evacuate. ”
Note this Tom Segev article: http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/741434.html
[…]
To this day, it is not clear what made the [King David Hotel] bombing’s planners believe the British would evacuate the building. Would Benjamin Netanyahu, as prime minister, have ordered his bureau evacuated on the basis of telephone threat from a Palestinian terror group?
Netanyahu spoke at the conference. The difference between a terrorist operation and a legitimate military action is expressed, he said, in the fact that the terrorists intend to harm civilians whereas legitimate combatants try to avoid that. According to that theory, the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier by a Palestinian organization is a legitimate military operation, and the bombing of Dresden, Hanoi, Haifa or Beirut is a war crime. Of course this is not what Netanyahu meant. He learned only this from the bombing of the hotel: that the Arabs are bad and we are good. Arab actions starting in 1920 and through the Iranian nuclear plan reflect, in his words, “a terrorist mentality.” Israel, on the other hand, only harms civilians by accident or when there is no alternative. For example, when terrorists hide among civilians.
The historic truth is different: In the 60 years since the attack at the King David Hotel, Israel has hurt some two million civilians, including 750,000 who lost their homes in 1948, another quarter million Palestinians who were forced to leave the West Bank in the Six-Day War and hundreds of thousands of Egyptian civilians who were expelled from the cities along the Suez Canal during the War of Attrition. And now tens of thousands of Lebanese villagers are being forced to abandon their homes, and air force pilots are once again bombing Beirut and other cities. Hundreds of civilians have been killed. Regrettably. It’s all in the spirit of the King David Hotel. One can always say there was a mishap.
So what do you think Israel should do against the missile attacks?
How does an army fight against a guerrilla organization? Are there any examples from the past?
x, I therefor assume you would have opposed our entering into WWII – many innocent Germans were killed. And of course the North should not have fought the civil war – innocent civilians throughout the South were killed and othewise devastated. I must say pacifism has never been a Jewish or rational attribute, but if you want to avoid innocent death (other of course the innocent deaths of the initial victims) it’s the inevitable end of your position.
Mobius, as usual you express the bleeding-heart liberal point of view. It is the Lebanese people that support Hezbollah! It is Lebanon’s fault that Hezbollah is still present in the south and present in the Lebanese government. Lebanon deserves a little punishment right now. Israel needs to go in and completely destroy them so that not another single Jew is murdered. We must do what we need to do…so stop apologizing for the military repsonse…now is not the time to be a self-hating Jew. Go learn some Torah, boychik!
Did he just call Mobius a self-hating jew? I love how that term gets thrown out any time one questions the wisdom or morality of Israeli military actions. Next thing you know, you’ll be told that you’re either 100 percent for Israel’s actions or a supporter of terrorism, and nothing in between. Mob, stop hating yourself!
Dealing with the difficult ethics head-on doesn’t make you a self-hating Jew.
Using the word boychik, however, that just kinda makes you a bit of a douchebag.
Dirrigible — I’m not a pacifist. I’m a scrupulist. consider the consequences before you pour on more lighter fluid:
http://www.counterpunch.org/laor10202004.html
A month after the Intifada began, four years ago, Major General Amos Malka, by then No. 3 in the military hierarchy, and until 2001 the head of Israeli military Intelligence (MI), asked one of his officers (Major Kuperwasser) how many 5.56 bullets the Central Command had fired during that month (that is, only in the West Bank). Three years later Malka talked about these horrific figures. This is what he said to Ha’aretz’s diplomatic commentator, Akiva Eldar about the first month of the Intifada, 30 days of unrest, no terrorist attacks yet, no Palestinian shooting:
Kuperwasser got back to me with the number, 850,000 bullets. My figure was 1.3 million bullets in the West Bank and Gaza. This is a strategic figure that says that our soldiers are shooting and shooting and shooting. I asked: “Is this what you intended in your preparations?” and he replied in the negative. I said: “Then the significance is that we are determining the height of the flames.” (HaAretz, 11.6.2004).
Mobi – the claim that the UN outpost was deliberately targeted was well vetted in the response to JB’s earlier post – in fact, today the Canadian PM expressed his clear opinion that this was an unavoidable accident of war.
One of the UN soldiers killed described the close proximity of Hezbollah positions in his own words, and official UN dispatches have reported several similar cases of Hezbollah using UN positions as “human shields”.
There’s no point in namecalling or labelling (“bleeding heart liberal” or “pacifist”) but I see a blind adherence to ideologically motivated claims in the face of the facts. That doesn’t cut it – nor is it worthy of respect.
Just curious — why is Arutz Sheva intrinsically any less reliable than say, Yediot Aharonot? As slanted as you could possibly say A7 is, Yediot Aharonot is, just in another direction. (Not that I don’t quote Ynet. But I also quote A7.)
hold up, did that dude call Mobius a self-hating Jew?
xisnotx,
Did you just cite Counterpunch? What, Der Sturmer wasn’t available?
“As the second week of fighting nears its closing, I have become personally unable to find any substantial justification for the scale of Israel’s response (in northern Lebanon, at least), as it has done nothing at all to bring the rocket barrages to a halt (another 100 rockets landed on northern Israel yesterday, over 1,500 so far). ”
1943- As the second year of fighting nears its closing, I am personally unable to find any substantial justification for the USA’s response to Axis aggression (in the Pacific and European theaters), as it has done nearly nothing in liberating the conquered countries or in forcing the unconditional surrender of the Axis powers (while our casualties mount). We must bring the troops home before the Germans and Japanese get really, really mad at us.
To xisntox (the Scrupulist):
You quote
“Over here, everybody is the army,” one soldier said. “Everybody is Hezbollah. There’s no kids, women, nothing.”
Another soldier put it plainly: “We’re going to shoot anything we see.”
Now here’s the quote in the context of the preceding sentences:
“Now more Israeli soldiers are on the way, including an armored unit being transferred from Gaza to Lebanon. They have been told civilians have left the region where they will fight.
“Over here, everybody is the army,” one soldier said. “Everybody is Hezbollah. There’s no kids, women, nothing.”
Another soldier put it plainly: “We’re going to shoot anything we see.”‘
See the difference? Maybe you should bother to read the articles you paste here. Or maybe you did read the article and chose to tailor your quote as you did. Either way, I guess they don’t make scrupulists like they used to.
EV– the author of that article is Yitzhak Laor, who frequently publishes in Ha’aretz. check out counterpunch’s editorial note:
Editors’ Note: This trenchant essay by Israeli novelist Yitzhak Laor was originally submitted to the London Review of Books, which in the past has frequently published Laor’s writing. But they refused to run this skewering of the Israeli Left with the LRB’s editor chiding Laor that “in my editorial judgment (to be pompous) this piece won’t help anyone.” CounterPunch is honored to publish it. AC / JSC
J- I didn’t intend choose to tailor it that way, and you’re right, there’s a difference. I still find it chilling; the following article, posted two hours ago it titled in Google News, “Israel pounds south Lebanon, civilians trapped”
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L26525463.htm
Bodies still lie in the streets in some isolated Lebanese border villages, where fighting has trapped terrified civilians, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said.
While some are worried that an innocent or so might have been killed by the IDF (of course no innocents are killed in warfare that doesn’t involve Israel), note the following sobering analysis from the counterterrorism blog:
Hezbollah’s actions on the battlefields of southern Lebanon should give the Israelis, the West and neighboring Arab governments reason to worry. In just two weeks, Hezbollah has been fighting the Israeli military to an effective standstill on the ground (remember that time is not on Israel’s side due to pressure to accept a cease fire). Not only is Hezbollah fighting at the platoon and company level, but fighting effectively during the initial engagements. al-Qaeda in Iraq (3 years of fighting) and the Taliban in Afghanistan (almost 5 years of fighting) have yet to reach such a level of effectiveness on the battlefield.
Iran has trained a proxy army that now sits on the border with Israeli, an army that cannot be dealt with from the air. If this problem is kicked down the road, Hezbollah will be that much more dangerous. And everything we think we know about Iran’s conventional military capabilities needs to be rethought.
i did not call mobius a self-hating jew.
i said now is not the time to be one.
while Jewish blood is being spilled at the hands of vicious arab murderers who seek to destroy everything we hold dear, it is not the time to question the IDF….we need to stand as one nation. As far as I’m concerned, there is absolutely nothing wrong with bombing the shit out of Lebanon. the only mistake was pulling out 6 years earlier…this showed weakness and the arabs took it as a victory. Hezbollah must be completely uprooted and annihilated…anything less will be a failure…and on the path to this end…yes, non-militant arabs will be killed….oh, well. Take a look at last week’s parsha when the Jews under Moshe’s leadership waged war against Midian…they had to go in and COMPLETELY destroy them because of the existential threat that they posed to Israel. We must always look to the Torah for guidance. So to all you “lefties” and doubters: Now is not the time for your moral relevancy. Stand strong with your brothers in Israel who are fighting while you sip on your cappucino.
peace.
I am not sure if many in the Press , the Eu, and the Un are upset that Israel is bombing civilians or that Israel has protected its people with alarm systems and shelters. I keep hearing how many Lebonese have died in compariaon to Israelis as if moe Israelis should be killed to even up the score.
After all, hundreds of non -guided missiles are exploding in Israel civilian sites by Hezbollah with the clear understanding that they are intentionally targeting civilians. Yet most of the countries at the Rome summit ignore that.
I keep on hearing that noone wants to see civilian casualties – but that is not true Lebanon/Hezbollah wants Israeli civilian casulties as they hide behind their own civilians so they can use Lebonese deaths for PR.
An interesting editorial from the Lebanese Daily Star:
http://www.dailystar.com.lb//article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=1&article_id=74278
Also found this interesting from the NY Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/opinion/27el-zein.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
It really looks like Olmert wanted to look tough and quickly escalated the situation beyond all strategic necessity.
OTOH, I am fair enough to realize that he was under domestic pressure due to the whole Gaza situation and pressure from the Israel public and from the right.
Still, a part of me suspects that Sharon would have handled the situation differently (maybe issued some tough rhetoric and then heavily bombed Hezbollah positions in the South).
But Olmert is not Sharon so he has to try and prove how tough he is.
In any case, the situation is not looking too good right now(Lebanon destroyed, Hezbollah probably won’t be disarmed,soldiers still missing), for Israel, America and worst of all for the Lebanese.
I’m very close to fully agreeing with Mobius.I’m not anywhere close to being a bleeding heart,but I just dont understand why Israel maintain the bombing campain despite the fact that it hasnt decreased the number of rockets at all. And yes the Lebanese really dont deserve it. Haarets , for God’s sake HAARETZ is imploring the goverment nearly every day to be more decisive and actually strike Hezbolla with ground troups.And not only is AMerica NOT putting on the breaks but its clearly disappointed in Israel’s failure.Israel finally has a clear shot to deal with its enemy and they arent wasting it .Today’s goverment decision was criminal.
Sharon would have done completely nothing.Olmert at least had the right hunch, although execution has been poor.
It’s amazing how mobious will always eat up, hook line and sinker, any report when it paints Israel or Jews in a negative light. Then with positive things, the reverse. I’m quite glad he’s allowed other voices to add to this site.
Jeremy wrote: :
Take a look at last week’s parsha when the Jews under Moshe’s leadership waged war against Midian…they had to go in and COMPLETELY destroy them because of the existential threat that they posed to Israel. We must always look to the Torah for guidance.”
my response:
Since when do we stop at the torah when looking for guidance? What happened to rabbinic judaism? there are many guidelines for times of war, including in rambam’s mishnah torah, laws of kings where he specifically references parshat matot. guidelines include– trying for the peace before going to war, leaving an option open to flee a city (not surrounding it on 4 sides), as well as the requirement that one must be fully aware and supportive of the reasons for war, otherwise he/she must not fight (the basis for conscientious objectors…) thank g-d we don’t just have the torah to go by when it comes to matters of war/peace…
also, don’t forget about the prophetic voices of admonition of jeremiah/isaiah during these three weeks…
May we find our way back to peace and justice
Jeremy wrote: :
Take a look at last week’s parsha when the Jews under Moshe’s leadership waged war against Midian…they had to go in and COMPLETELY destroy them because of the existential threat that they posed to Israel. We must always look to the Torah for guidance.”
my response:
Since when do we stop at the torah when looking for guidance? What happened to rabbinic judaism? there are many guidelines for times of war, including in rambam’s mishnah torah, laws of kings where he specifically references parshat matot. guidelines include– trying for the peace before going to war, leaving an option open to flee a city (not surrounding it on 4 sides), as well as the requirement that one must be fully aware and supportive of the reasons for war, otherwise he/she must not fight (the basis for conscientious objectors…) thank g-d we don’t just have the torah to go by when it comes to matters of war/peace…
also, don’t forget about the prophetic voices of admonition of jeremiah/isaiah during these three weeks…
May we find our way back to peace and justice
Mobius the missles weren’t used until the invasion was on already. There were some exchanges, but even Haaretz reported that the exchanges were in responce to Israeli air incursions and mostly to Sheba farms, which wasn’t Israel’s to begin with. Why don’t they have a right to defend themselves?
Israel is killing far more civilians Hizbollah. Why shouldn’t Hizbollah invade to disarm Israel by your standards? You are clearly an existential threat to their people!